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What You Need to Know About the Fed

What You Need to Know About the Fed

Introduction

We talk a lot about the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) and monetary policy. So, it’s time we take some of the mystery out of the Fed’s structure and process. Let’s take a closer look at the Fed Board, how it works … and what it means to individual investors.

    How the Federal Reserve Board is structured

    The Federal Reserve Board is the leadership team behind the U.S. central bank, often called “the Fed,” which was established in 1913 by President Wilson when he signed the Federal Reserve Act into law. It is made up of seven members called Governors, who are appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate.

    Each Governor serves a long 14-year term, which helps keep politics out of their decision-making. The Board works alongside 12 regional Federal Reserve Bank presidents spread across the country. Together, they help manage the economy by influencing interest rates, regulating banks, and keeping inflation in check—all things that directly affect your investments.

      How are decisions made and voted on?

      When it comes to making big decisions—like whether to raise or lower interest rates—the Board members meet regularly as part of a group called the Federal Open Market Committee. This committee includes all seven Governors plus five regional bank presidents. The President of the New York Fed is a permanent voting member while others rotate, serving one-year terms. Each member gets one vote, and decisions are made by majority rule.

      These votes are important because they can affect borrowing costs, stock market trends, and the value of your savings. If you’re investing in stocks, bonds, or real estate, Fed decisions can influence market movements and investor confidence.

        Why the Fed operates independently

        One of the most important things to know is that the Federal Reserve Board operates independently from the rest of the government. While elected officials appoint its members, the Fed doesn’t rely on Congress for funding and doesn’t take orders from the president. This independence allows the Fed to make decisions based on economic data, not political pressure.


        For investors, this means the Fed is focused on long-term stability rather than short-term political goals, which helps create a more predictable environment for financial planning. The Chair of the Federal Reserve Board (currently Kevin Warsh) is the most visible and influential member. This person leads meetings, guides discussions, and speaks publicly about the Fed’s outlook and decisions.
        While the Chair doesn’t have more voting power than other members, their leadership helps shape the Fed’s direction. For investors, the Chair’s speeches, interviews and Congressional testimony are closely watched. Markets often react to their tone and wording. Understanding the Chair’s views can provide insight into where interest rates and inflation might be headed, helping you make more informed investment choices.

          More about political influence

          In recent months, the Federal Reserve has faced intense pressure from the White House, particularly from President Donald Trump, who has pushed aggressively for lower interest rates. Trump has gone so far as to install a loyal economist, Stephen Miran, onto the Fed’s Board of Governors and attempted to remove Governor Lisa Cook for alleged mortgage fraud. The nomination of Kevin Warsh is also fresh in our minds.


          These moves are seen by many as efforts to tilt the Fed’s decision-making in favor of more politically convenient policies, like rapid rate cuts ahead of the 2026 election. For investors, this kind of pressure can create uncertainty about whether the Fed is acting based on economic data or political agendas.


          But there are legal and institutional safeguards designed to protect the Fed from political influence. It is for this very reason that we have long terms for Fed Governors and independent funding. These safeguards are crucial because they allow the Fed to make decisions based on long-term economic health rather than election-year politics. For DIY investors, this independence helps ensure that interest rate decisions are made with stability in mind, not political gain.


          If political pressure influences the Fed, markets can react unpredictably. For example, if investors believe the Fed is cutting rates to please the White House rather than to address real economic issues, it can shake confidence in the central bank’s credibility. This can lead to increased inflation expectations, higher long-term interest rates, and volatility in stocks and bonds. For investors, this means it’s important to watch not just what the Fed does, but why it’s doing it. The reasoning behind a rate cut can affect how markets respond.

            Historical challenges to Fed independence

            This isn’t the first time the Fed’s independence has been tested. In the 1970s, President Nixon pressured Fed Chair Arthur Burns to keep interest rates low in the run-up to the 1972 election, contributing to runaway inflation that hurt the economy for years. In 1981, there was friction between President Reagan and Fed Chair Paul Volcker over high interest rates implemented to tame inflation. More recently, Trump’s first and current terms have seen repeated attempts to influence Fed policy, including public calls for rate cuts and threats to fire Chair Powell.


            Some still criticize the timing of an aggressive 50-basis point rate cut on September 18, 2024. It was the first since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and was just weeks before the presidential election. These episodes highlight that when the Fed caves to political pressure, the long-term consequences—like inflation and market instability—can be severe.


            In September 2025 the Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%. This was the first rate cut in nine months and came amid signs of a weakening job market and slowing hiring. Inflation remains elevated, partly due to pressure from tariffs on imported goods, but the Fed prioritized employment concerns in its decision as charged by their dual mandate to maximize employment while stabilizing prices.


            Chair Jerome Powell emphasized at the time that the Fed was committed to its independence, even as political pressure mounted.

              It’s important

              Being in tune with the Fed and its economic and political pressures is important to investors. Having a feel for the direction of short-term interest rates is very important to evaluating the stock and bond markets. While short-term interest rates don’t necessarily move longer-term rates, Fed policy easing can still be an important tailwind for equity and fixed-income investors.

                Have questions?

                You can always reach out to the MoneyLetter Team by visiting our contact page: https://moneyletter.com/contact/

                You Shouldn’t Be Surprised by This Market Correction

                You Shouldn’t Be Surprised by This Market Correction

                A stock market correction is usually defined as a decline of 10% or more from a recent peak in major indices like the S&P 500. Over the years, declines like these have occurred with regularity, rectifying soaring valuations and tempering speculative excesses. On March 13, 2025, the market entered its first correction since 2023. 

                 

                How Often and How Much? 

                Since the 1950s, the S&P 500 has gone through approximately 38 corrections … an average of one every 1.84 years. Let’s round it off to a correction roughly every two years. That’s one of the reasons we have been saying you shouldn’t be surprised we are going through one now. The average decline during these corrections has been around 14%, though individual corrections can vary in intensity. 

                 

                Noteworthy Bear Markets Since the 1960s 

                • 1966: The S&P 500 declined by approximately 22% due to an economic slowdown and tightening monetary policy.​ 
                • 1973-1974: A significant bear market occurred, with the index dropping about 48%. This was influenced by the oil embargo and rising inflation.​ 
                • 1987: Known as “Black Monday,” the market plummeted over 20% in one day, marking one of the most rapid corrections in history.​ 
                • 2000-2002: The bursting of the dot-com bubble led to a nearly 37% decline in the S&P 500 over two years.​ 
                • 2007-2009: The global financial crisis resulted in a 57% drop, making it one of the most severe bear markets since the Great Depression.​ 
                • 2020: The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic caused a swift 34% decline. This was followed by an equally rapid recovery.​ 

                 

                Current Context and Overdue Correction 

                After two years of extraordinary stock market returns (20%+ for the S&P 500 in both 2023 and 2024), we felt the markets were overdue for correction. Several factors contributed to our anticipation of a significant pullback: 

                1. Extended Bull Market: Prolonged periods of market gains can lead to overvaluations, increasing the likelihood of a corrective phase.​ 
                1. Economic Indicators: Signs of economic slowing often precede market corrections. At this time, we do not see a recession in the cards, but there have been some recent soft economic reports.​ 
                1. Geopolitical Tensions: Global events, such as trade disputes or political instability, can trigger market volatility. 

                 

                Implications for Investors 

                While corrections can be unsettling, they are a natural part of market cycles. Historically, the S&P 500 has gained an average of more than 8% one month after a market correction bottom and more than 24% one year later. This type of market resilience underscores the importance of maintaining a long-term investment perspective and not making impulsive decisions based on short-term market movements.

                 

                 

                If you need financial advice or a financial review, we would be happy to introduce you to a licensed advisor at our sister company, Asset Strategy Advisors (ASA).

                ASA is an SEC registered investment advisor.

                Visit our Contact page to click the button below to speak with the Asset Strategy Advisor Team.